Fed rate hike! Read a paper on the impact of domestic stock and property markets

  Beijing on March 22 morning, much recent attention of global investors meeting on interest rates in March formally settled。   After two days of discussions, the Federal Reserve announced that the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to a level to%。 This is the first time this year the Fed to raise interest rates, in line with market expectations。
  The impact on domestic assets and categories of analysis and perspectives from a number of blue-chip front-line general said, bring some negative impact is likely to continue raising interest rates despite the Fed on the domestic risk-free interest rate funds, categories of asset prices might thus have the pressure, but the equity market still has high appeal for the a-share market's long-term performance, we can still maintain a moderately cautious optimism。 Future investment opportunities in the stock market, continue to be optimistic still worth。   Is China a substantial follow-up to the biggest suspense possible effects on domestic monetary policy and financial aspects of the current level of interest rates the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the recent mainstream research perspectives from brokers and other sell-side institutions are generally agreed that, after the Fed rate hike, China's central bank will enhance the probability of a large open market operations interest rates again, which may lead to continued market funds rate continued to moderate upward。   (,) Chief macroeconomic researcher Zhao bonds to China Securities News (ID: xhszzb), told reporters that from the historical experience, China's central bank monetary policy mainly consider domestic factors; but in the last year with the normalization of monetary policy to speed up overseas, China's central bank monetary policy changes focus on overseas also increased significantly。
    In addition, private equity and other aspects of the analysis, the mainstream view is also inclined to believe that the central bank will lift interest rates again open market operations, as the interior of this Fed rate hike feedback。 However, there are private agencies also suggest that the risk that the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this follow up on the possibility of China's central bank to raise interest rates can not be fully ruled out。   Suzaku investment from Shanghai, Shanghai and other point of view generally believe that the current Fed interest rate hike, expected China's central bank will continue to affect market funds rate by open market operations in order to maintain the stability of the cross-border movement of。   The co-chief investment officer Chen Xin then to China Securities News (ID: xhszzb) reporters said that the current widely expected China's central bank will follow the Fed raised open market operations rate (including inverse interest rates, MLF interest rates, etc.) 5 or 10 basis points (% or%)。
Taking into account the repo rate and the interbank interest rate certificates of deposit issued significantly higher than the comparable interest rates of open market operations, policy interest rates just further confirmation of market interest rates, open market operations only if interest rates rise, then the negative impact on the financial markets will be very limited。
On the other hand, although the financing of social and economic growth momentum weakened from this year, inflationary pressures and controllable point of view, there is not the need to increase deposit and lending rates, but once the deposit and lending rates do rise, then on the domestic financial market will have some impact than expected。   It is noteworthy that, since the beginning of 2017, the overall direction of the inter-bank money market interest rate point of view, the face of the past year and the Fed has to raise interest rates three times, (,) between the central market funds rate, although a slight upward, but the overall rate is still very limited upward。
    Source: Finance Department terminal data as of March 21 funds rate is the weighted average deposit-taking institutions categories of assets is still relatively favorable Bi Jia shares from the perspective of asset allocation categories, the current overall blue-chip private equity investment in A-share market opportunities, overall confidence remains strong。   Deputy Director of Shanghai Suzaku investment research Hurong Chun said that the trend of domestic categories of assets but the main thing affected。 The current economic good start, vivid energy remains to be seen within。
Overall, with the social categories reallocation of funds, equity markets still have high appeal。   Shanghai Fu Shan, general manager of the investment Lin Chengdong further analysis, said this after the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, lifting the domestic market interest rate volatility range that may arise, the discount rate on the market, the stock market has brought some pressure by mortgage rates。 Hike the cumulative effect of the final reaction on the resistance of economic growth, potential economic growth will fall in the long-term fundamentals and demand for commodities put pressure。
A shares, the Fed is expected for more advanced management of monetary policy, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates relatively full, before the hike in global financial markets has been more fully reflect the impact of interest rates, so after the rate hike impact on the market is too small。
And, after the A-share market the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in most cases will still run Historically, in accordance with its own rhythm。 Considering the stock market over the past two to three years compared to the financial side of the property market and commodities is not sufficient, therefore, despite the impact of the rate hike, the current market structure due to the presence of money effect, A-share market liquidity situation is not worth overly pessimistic。
  In addition, there are private agencies on condition of anonymity further said that the current overall benchmark lending rate at record level trough。 After this time the Fed raise interest rates again, the domestic benchmark lending rate is likely to gradually face the reality of upward pressure。
In this context, respect for domestic markets, like commodities and other investments, the recommendations should be cautious。     (Above benchmark lending rate over 5-year period) private blue chip stocks continue to focus on opportunities for A shares after this particular Fed rate hike, the current overall strategic view of the blue-chip private equity firms were generally more consistent, that is, in point of market expectations overall under the background of cautious optimism, we continue to tap investment opportunities in individual stocks。
  Double Ninth investment co-chief investment officer Chen heart said, from a valuation point of view, the valuation of a substantial restoration after 2016, small and medium-invasive way down the valuation, A-share valuation of the overall level of the whole market is becoming more rational。
Standing on the current point in time, the probability of systemic valuation of A shares to raise or lower are relatively small, but more opportunities mining stocks。 From the current point of view, the integrity of the value of large blue-chip return process has been more than half, "second division" basis appears next market will be significantly differentiated and more in the past year on。 On the one hand 10% of the expected performance of some stocks led the gains will continue to be the subject of excess returns for investors; on the other hand behind 2017 90% of the stocks will show a new "nineteen" market differentiation。 Investors are advised to seek further companies' expectations for the better has not been established but is expected to build the future, "the。   A combination of spot-share market run, deputy director of Shanghai Hurong Chun Suzaku investment research analysis said that the current market is mainly chasing high valuation, high stock prices of stocks, and for the size and performance of preferences is gradually fade。 This style with the previous market, TMT and other industries related valuations are low, but also enhance related to recent policy level to support the "unicorn" of enterprises has brought a degree of market attention。 In the specific investment strategy, the short to medium term, the agency will continue to play down the private sector style, continue to look for stocks based Alpha。
  Fu Shan Hai, general manager of investment Lin Chengdong also analyzed that the negative impact of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for A shares is mainly reflected in the discount rate for the valuation of erosion and leading corporate earnings growth potential。 From a structural point of view, since the value of stocks and growth stocks over the past two years, we experienced the opposite trend valuation movement, the value of stocks as a whole in a constant process of valuation increase, while growth stocks are declining in the valuation process。
Overall, at this stage in the bottom of historical valuation relative valuations of growth stocks suffered the impact of the situation better than value stocks, the stock market in the future and other topics, is expected to show a better investment opportunities。   The latest statistics from the Finance Department of big data terminal display by the close March 21, compared with directly affected by the Fed to raise interest rates while the US stock market valuation is facing bearish, the current A-share market as a whole right weight plates relatively low valuation ,, GEM as a whole is not very significant valuations inferiority。
  Source: Department of Finance large data terminal data as of March 21。