Deutsche Bank: The next time the United States for at least three years after the recession

US stock market center: Exclusive offer full industry sector stocks, premarket after-hours, ETF, warrants night network real-time quotes, nightlife network Finance YORK, Dec. 10 news, after the financial crisis triggered by the "Great Recession" ended, US economy recovery has been going on for several years, the stock market has risen 200%, but investors seem to have to worry about a recession coming down, because the Fed does not raise interest rates yet。  Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) economists point out that all the post-war recession in the United States have occurred after the Fed into the rate hike cycle, in other words, are "triggered" by the Federal Reserve as the。  After the Fed plans to begin raising interest rates in mid-2015 or so, the rate hike cycle usually lasts about two years, the arrival of a US recession seems to be under at least until 3 years。  Over the past four years, global GDP are close to the trend level of growth rate, and the market is widely expected in 2015 will be slightly above the trend level。Because the United States, Europe and Japan are faced with the drag on fiscal policy, which means that the growth of the private sector in developed countries is more robust。It is also important, although there are a variety of negative shocks and a sharp slowdown in high-growth emerging economies, global growth has remained relatively good elasticity。  In the Deutsche Bank economists, the current global growth is more like the difference expansion in the 1990s, rather than the 2003–07 Abnormal expansion cycle synchronization。Typically, when the more inconsistent pace of global economic growth, often longer duration。  90 years of global growth since the early 1970s most sustained period of expansion, during the US stock market also appeared in a magnificent bull market until 2000, "tech bubble" burst。  For the current US stock market, Deutsche Bank believes no signs of froth。In contrast, the current valuation of the S & P 500 index can be entirely driven by the traditional valuation payout ratio, profitability, inflation, real interest rates, macroeconomic volatility and other factors to explain, "Although the valuation has been steadily expanding in recent years, still below its fair value, "Deutsche Bank said in a report the case。  Deutsche Bank recommended investors to continue to do more "growth assets", ie, the stock market and high-yield corporate bonds, short "recession assets", ie government bonds, high-grade corporate bonds, gold。(Shofu compilation)